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Karlsruhe 1–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Apr 1, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Lechner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win52%1.83
Draw25%3.89
Braunschweig win22%4.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −0.7553%1.84
Karlsruhe −0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Lion Lauberbach · Braunschweig
18'🟨Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe
22'🟨Robin Krausse · Braunschweig
54'🟨Nathan De Medina · Braunschweig
64'🟨Jasmin Fejzić · Braunschweig
68'⚽Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe
69'🟨Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe
69'🟨Jasmin Fejzić · Braunschweig
69'🟥Jasmin Fejzić · Braunschweig
77'🟨Hasan Kuruçay · Braunschweig
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots6
7On target2
13Corners1
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.790.62
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
Ron-Thorben Hoffmann
· Braunschweig
coach days1155.00669.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.002.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.843.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.18
dominance (last 5)0.530.61
elo1481.181393.01
elo momentum (last 5)51.42-17.04
eye test v10.920.62
eye trend v1-0.050.17
first sub minute (last 10)58.5063.40
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.450.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.05
keeper form v1—0.62
league points34.0025.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8073.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8048.00
rest days14.7312.94
scorer concentration0.260.22
season ppg1.361.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.406.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.4016.80
skill v1-0.51-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.205.20
squad age28.3028.37
state index0.54-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.92-1.25
threat rate (last 10)0.320.32
threat rate (last 3)0.310.33
threat rate (last 5)0.330.38
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20