← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Mar 18, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 57% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.47 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 22% | 4.61 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.43 |
| Under | 33% | 2.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 50' | 🟨 | Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel |
| 64' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 72' | 🟨 | Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel |
| 87' | 🟨 | Noah Katterbach · Hamburger SV |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 17 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 625.00 | 533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1624.85 | 1491.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.31 | -22.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 48.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 28.67 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |