← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Mar 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 51% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.85 |
| Regensburg win | 24% | 4.15 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Regensburg −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Blendi Idrizi · Regensburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Joshua Mees · Regensburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kaan Caliskaner · Regensburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mikkel Kirkeskov · Holstein Kiel |
| 79' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Prince-Osei Owusu · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Erras · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 527.00 | 2080.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1506.77 | 1369.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.55 | -33.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.81 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.25 | 26.53 |
| state index | -0.26 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |