← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Mar 11, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 45% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Heidenheim win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over | 44% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 27' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Iyoha · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 53' | 🟨 | Florian Pick · Heidenheim |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 77' | 🟥 | Denis Thomalla · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Klaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Norman Theuerkauf · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 403.00 | 5670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1532.96 | 1582.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.83 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 38.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.31 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 26.64 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |