← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Mar 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 44% | 2.25 |
| Regensburg win | 28% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Regensburg +0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Aygün Yıldırım · Regensburg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kaan Caliskaner · Regensburg |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 2072.00 | 396.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1376.62 | 1525.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.72 | -2.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.24 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 27.15 |
| state index | -1.17 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |