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Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, Feb 24, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf win59%1.63
Draw23%4.26
Braunschweig win18%5.43

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −153%1.85
Fortuna Dusseldorf −147%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf
24'🟨Linus Gechter · Braunschweig
25'⚽Christoph Klarer · Fortuna Dusseldorf
32'🟨Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
53'🟨Fabio Kaufmann · Braunschweig
62'⚽ (og)Florian Kastenmeier · Braunschweig
70'🟨Niko Kijewski · Braunschweig
81'🟨Daniel Ginczek · Fortuna Dusseldorf
85'⚽Jona Niemiec · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'🟨Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots18
7On target4
6Corners3
14Fouls17
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFortuna DusseldorfBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.33
box share (last 5)0.670.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days388.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerkur Spiel-Arena
🟨
Nathan De Medina · Braunschweig
633.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.600.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.733.60
elo1475.211361.39
elo momentum (last 5)-23.11-8.81
eye test v11.20-0.07
eye trend v1-0.340.17
first sub minute (last 10)59.6054.80
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.92
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.700.64
league points32.0021.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0068.60
possession avg (last 5)56.0042.00
rest days6.237.00
scorer concentration0.210.22
season ppg1.521.00
skill v10.85-1.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)6.103.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.604.20
state index-0.36-0.80
sterile dominance v1-0.10-1.31
threat rate (last 10)0.330.28
threat rate (last 3)0.290.31
threat rate (last 5)0.330.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00