← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Feb 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 50% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.35 |
| Nurnberg win | 22% | 4.54 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 23' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 34' | 🟥 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 38' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 51' | 🟨 | Florian Hübner · Nurnberg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 86' | ⚽ | Marnon Busch · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 5650.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1551.73 | 1433.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.15 | 2.11 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| league points | 37.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.61 | — |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |