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Heidenheim 5–0 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Feb 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win50%1.96
Draw29%3.35
Nurnberg win22%4.54

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim −0.550%1.96
Nurnberg −0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.73
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
23'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
34'🟥Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg
38'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
51'🟨Florian Hübner · Nurnberg
81'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
86'⚽Marnon Busch · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
17Shots6
7On target2
5Corners5
8Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.640.42
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
coach days5650.0018.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.022.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.05
dominance (last 5)0.560.45
elo1551.731433.87
elo momentum (last 5)1.152.11
eye test v11.07-0.15
eye trend v1-0.050.15
first sub minute (last 10)65.1051.80
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.20
keeper form v10.580.63
league points37.0022.00
league rank4.0012.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4067.80
possession avg (last 5)53.8046.40
rest days7.718.02
scorer concentration0.310.38
season ppg1.851.10
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.0013.00
skill v10.38-1.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.403.80
squad age25.61—
state index0.29-0.24
sterile dominance v1-0.22-0.93
threat rate (last 10)0.320.29
threat rate (last 3)0.360.28
threat rate (last 5)0.310.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00