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Braunschweig 2–3 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, Feb 17, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Winter

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win41%2.41
Braunschweig win32%3.03
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig +0.2553%1.83
Holstein Kiel +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Fabian Reese · Holstein Kiel
22'⚽Hólmbert Aron Friðjónsson · Holstein Kiel
23'🟨Jasmin Fejzić · Braunschweig
31'🟨Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel
48'⚽Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel
57'🟨Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel
57'⚽Maurice Multhaup · Braunschweig
69'⚽Danilo Wiebe · Braunschweig
75'🟨Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel
90'🟨Jannis Nikolaou · Braunschweig
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
19Shots10
6On target5
12Corners3
9Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.610.65
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
Manuel Wintzheimer
· Braunschweig
2.60
coach days626.00504.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.407.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.763.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.410.56
elo1410.051499.52
elo momentum (last 5)1.77-16.19
eye test v1-0.660.92
eye trend v10.140.37
first sub minute (last 10)57.1053.20
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
keeper form v10.710.64
league points21.0028.00
league rank15.008.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)40.0052.40
rest days5.216.23
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg1.051.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.204.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.4018.60
skill v1-1.54-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.206.00
squad age27.4426.39
state index-0.44-0.14
sterile dominance v1-1.10-0.94
threat rate (last 10)0.270.32
threat rate (last 3)0.280.40
threat rate (last 5)0.270.37
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60