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Darmstadt 2–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Feb 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win60%1.60
Draw23%4.31
Braunschweig win17%5.73

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −152%1.90
Darmstadt −148%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Ron-Thorben Hoffmann · Braunschweig
29'🟨Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
39'🟨Saulo Decarli · Braunschweig
49'🟨Thomas Isherwood · Darmstadt
52'🟨Christoph Zimmermann · Darmstadt
52'⚽ (pen)Manuel Wintzheimer · Braunschweig
70'🟨Tarsis Bonga · Braunschweig
82'⚽Mathias Honsak · Darmstadt
83'🟨Nathan De Medina · Braunschweig
90'🟨Filip Stojilković · Darmstadt
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots9
6On target4
8Corners1
13Fouls21
5Yellow cards7
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.32
box share (last 5)0.610.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days591.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt
90'🟨Anton Donkor · Braunschweig
90'🟨Nathan De Medina · Braunschweig
90'🟨Immanuel Pherai · Braunschweig
90'🟥Nathan De Medina · Braunschweig
90'⚽Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt
621.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.69
elo1592.011373.91
elo momentum (last 5)24.41-5.13
eye test v10.16-0.64
eye trend v1-0.180.26
first sub minute (last 10)58.0057.50
form points (last 5)13.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.92
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.790.71
league points42.0021.00
league rank1.0015.00
matches since blank18.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6069.60
possession avg (last 5)56.4042.60
rest days8.798.02
scorer concentration0.190.24
season ppg2.211.11
skill v10.38-1.17
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
state index0.85-0.53
sterile dominance v10.15-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.210.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20