← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Feb 11, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 44% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 |
| Regensburg win | 27% | 3.68 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Regensburg −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Jan Gyamerah · Nurnberg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Minos Gouras · Regensburg |
| 56' | ⚽ | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Duah · Nurnberg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 10.00 | 2051.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1426.59 | 1389.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.37 | -30.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 26.41 |
| state index | -0.55 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |