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Hannover 3–4 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Feb 11, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Cortus

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win41%2.33
Hannover win31%3.15
Draw28%3.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover +0.2552%1.90
SC Paderborn 07 +0.2548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Cedric Teuchert · Hannover
4'⚽Cedric Teuchert · Hannover
6'⚽Robert Leipertz · SC Paderborn 07
21'🟨Ron Schallenberg · SC Paderborn 07
26'⚽ (pen)Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07
35'🟨Enzo Leopold · Hannover
41'🟨Håvard Nielsen · Hannover
55'⚽Robert Leipertz · SC Paderborn 07
65'🟨Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07
69'🟨Marvin Pieringer · SC Paderborn 07
71'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
10Shots13
6On target9
4Corners1
16Fouls9
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.660.61
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz von Heiden-Arena
Sirlord Conteh · SC Paderborn 07
73'🟨Maximilian Rohr · SC Paderborn 07
83'⚽Maximilian Beier · Hannover
87'🟨Monju Momuluh · Hannover
coach days225.00590.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.711.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.370.47
elo1479.171541.96
elo momentum (last 5)-17.46-23.19
eye test v1-0.670.22
eye trend v1-0.050.50
first sub minute (last 10)60.9053.50
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.780.77
league points28.0032.00
league rank7.005.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)47.0055.20
rest days5.987.77
scorer concentration0.290.25
season ppg1.471.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.0013.80
skill v1-0.580.54
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.80
squad age26.3924.89
state index-0.46-0.14
sterile dominance v1-0.130.26
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.32
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40