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SV Sandhausen 0–4 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, Feb 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win45%2.17
Draw29%3.33
SV Sandhausen win26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt +0.2553%1.85
SV Sandhausen +0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Mathias Honsak · Darmstadt
25'⚽Mathias Honsak · Darmstadt
29'🟨Alexander Esswein · SV Sandhausen
31'🟨Fabian Schnellhardt · Darmstadt
55'⚽Oscar Vilhelmsson · Darmstadt
57'🟨Christian Kinsombi · SV Sandhausen
84'🟨Bashkim Ajdini · SV Sandhausen
89'⚽Emir Karić · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
17Shots11
4On target6
3Corners7
11Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.500.55
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
coach days2.00582.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.312.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.03
dominance (last 5)0.470.61
elo1439.501618.87
elo momentum (last 5)9.0210.15
eye test v10.270.15
eye trend v1-0.01-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)67.8060.60
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.680.78
league points19.0039.00
league rank14.001.00
matches since blank6.0017.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0055.20
rest days5.216.23
scorer concentration0.230.22
season ppg1.062.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.005.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8015.80
skill v1-0.820.51
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.20
squad age27.6028.22
state index-0.250.82
sterile dominance v1-0.590.05
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.20