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Nurnberg 0–1 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Jan 29, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Sather

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win38%2.53
Nurnberg win34%2.86
Draw28%3.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 +053%1.84
Nurnberg +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Manolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli 1910
33'⚽Jakov Medić · FC St. Pauli 1910
86'🟨Jermain Nischalke · Nurnberg
86'🟨Nikola Vasilj · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
23Shots9
5On target2
2Corners2
8Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNurnbergFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.380.65
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMax-Morlock-Stadion
coach days120.0059.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.05
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.712.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.16
dominance (last 5)0.390.54
elo1443.981484.85
elo momentum (last 5)1.70-18.62
eye test v1-1.150.85
eye trend v10.06-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)49.8058.10
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.41
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.720.64
league points19.0017.00
league rank12.0015.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4080.80
possession avg (last 5)45.6056.60
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.400.23
season ppg1.121.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.002.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.6015.80
skill v1-0.650.81
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.005.80
squad age26.2625.68
state index-0.11-0.53
sterile dominance v1-0.350.16
threat rate (last 10)0.280.30
threat rate (last 3)0.290.30
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20