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Greuther Furth 1–0 Hamburger SV

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Wed, Nov 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win43%2.24
Greuther Furth win30%3.22
Draw27%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV +0.2550%1.94
Greuther Furth +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.71
Under43%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Armindo Sieb · Greuther Furth
45'🟨Max Christiansen · Greuther Furth
47'🟨Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV
49'🟨Damian Michalski · Greuther Furth
57'🟨Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV
63'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Greuther Furth
63'🟨László Bénes · Hamburger SV
68'🟨Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV
87'🟥Timothy Tillman · Greuther Furth
87'🟨Daniel Heuer Fernandes · Hamburger SV
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots12
4On target2
5Corners4
15Fouls11
4Yellow cards6
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthHamburger SV
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.640.65
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
🟨
Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Xavier Amaechi · Hamburger SV
0.80
coach days131.00496.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.052.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.16
dominance (last 5)0.530.54
elo1477.301624.61
elo momentum (last 5)6.83-29.19
eye test v1-0.211.55
eye trend v1-0.080.23
first sub minute (last 10)64.0064.90
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.60
keeper form v10.610.75
league points16.0031.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank13.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8083.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4061.00
rest days3.213.21
scorer concentration0.280.38
season ppg1.072.07
shot diff avg (last 5)1.802.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.6016.40
skill v1-0.271.31
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.006.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.008.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.007.40
squad age26.1425.72
state index0.040.17
sterile dominance v10.000.41
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.210.39
threat rate (last 5)0.240.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40