← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Oct 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 38% | 2.53 |
| Heidenheim win | 34% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Heidenheim +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Lennard Maloney · Heidenheim |
| 31' | ⚽ | Denis Thomalla · Heidenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 51' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 380.00 | 5524.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1488.90 | 1541.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.65 | 12.98 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.67 | 26.22 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |