← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Oct 9, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 43% | 2.24 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 31% | 3.21 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel |
| 33' | 🟨 | Patrick Erras · Holstein Kiel |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mikkel Kirkeskov · Holstein Kiel |
| 39' | ⚽ | Lino Tempelmann · Nurnberg |
| 62' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 65' | ⚽ | Fabian Reese · Holstein Kiel |
| 79' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sadik Fofana · Nurnberg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christoph Daferner · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 8.00 | 373.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1438.34 | 1478.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.59 | -16.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 27.97 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |