← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, Oct 7, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 41% | 2.35 |
| Regensburg win | 30% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Greuther Furth +0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Simon Asta · Greuther Furth |
| 34' | ⚽ | Damian Michalski · Greuther Furth |
| 42' | ⚽ | Kaan Caliskaner · Regensburg |
| 44' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 62' | ⚽ | Kaan Caliskaner · Regensburg |
| 74' | ⚽ | Simon Asta · Greuther Furth |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sebastian Griesbeck · Greuther Furth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco John · Greuther Furth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 1924.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1409.72 | 1470.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.22 | -11.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 26.41 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |