⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Greuther Furth 1–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 Β· Sat, Oct 1, 11:00 AM UTC Β· ref: F. Lechner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win51%1.90
Draw27%3.60
SV Sandhausen win22%4.33

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth βˆ’0.551%1.90
SV Sandhausen βˆ’0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Alexander Esswein · SV Sandhausen
33'🟨Alexander Esswein · SV Sandhausen
48'⚽Julian Green · Greuther Furth
61'🟨Tom Trybull · SV Sandhausen
68'🟨Simon Asta · Greuther Furth
84'🟨Cebio Soukou · SV Sandhausen
90'🟨Tom Trybull · SV Sandhausen
90'🟨Arne Sicker · SV Sandhausen
90'πŸŸ₯Tom Trybull Β· SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots6
4On target4
8Corners0
7Fouls22
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.600.64
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
2.20
coach days92.00395.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.772.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.470.43
elo1473.141438.30
elo momentum (last 5)-26.76-26.44
eye test v10.22-0.20
eye trend v1-0.20-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)58.7070.10
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v1β€”0.75
league points7.008.00
league rank17.0014.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet13.002.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8071.40
possession avg (last 5)45.6043.40
rest days12.9814.77
scorer concentration0.300.44
season ppg0.780.89
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.0010.80
skill v1-0.53-0.89
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age25.7927.20
state index-0.44-0.88
sterile dominance v1-0.57-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20