← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Sep 17, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 56% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 |
| Nurnberg win | 21% | 4.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Nurnberg −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.63 |
| Under | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
| 27' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt |
| 58' | 🟨 | Erik Wekesser · Nurnberg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frank Ronstadt · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 443.00 | 808.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1579.01 | 1460.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.73 | -26.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.13 | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |