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FC St. Pauli 1910 1–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 Β· Sun, Sep 11, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: M. Bacher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win57%1.68
Draw25%4.00
SV Sandhausen win18%5.55

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 βˆ’0.7553%1.85
SV Sandhausen βˆ’0.7547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Matondo-Merveille Papela · SV Sandhausen
38'⚽Jackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli 1910
45'🟨Tom Trybull · SV Sandhausen
71'⚽David Kinsombi · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
22Shots6
5On target3
11Corners1
6Fouls12
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910SV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.650.59
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
2.80
coach days802.00375.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.551.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.07
dominance (last 5)0.610.39
elo1513.141445.69
elo momentum (last 5)-16.21-18.01
eye test v10.36-0.60
eye trend v1-0.34-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)53.9068.10
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.710.76
league points9.007.00
league rank11.0014.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8065.60
possession avg (last 5)56.8039.00
rest days8.027.00
scorer concentration0.250.43
season ppg1.291.00
shot diff avg (last 5)6.00-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.409.00
skill v10.74-1.70
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.40
squad age25.3227.63
state index-0.01-0.66
sterile dominance v1-0.14-1.11
threat rate (last 10)0.300.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.330.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60