← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, Sep 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 47% | 2.00 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 27% | 3.80 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 51' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 69' | ⚽ | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 79' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Moritz Heyer · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 343.00 | 435.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1500.60 | 1629.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.23 | 23.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.86 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 26.33 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |