← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, Aug 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 |
| Regensburg win | 19% | 5.14 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Regensburg −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 59' | ⚽ | Daniel Ginczek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 64' | 🟨 | Leon Guwara · Regensburg |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 69' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 78' | ⚽ | Felix Klaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 85' | ⚽ | Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jan Elvedi · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 206.00 | 1882.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1527.38 | 1418.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.55 | 11.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 26.97 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |