⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

SV Sandhausen 1–2 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Aug 20, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Burda

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win37%2.68
Nurnberg win35%2.74
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen +051%1.93
Nurnberg +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'⚽Bashkim Ajdini · SV Sandhausen
39'🟨Jens Castrop · Nurnberg
49'⚽Christoph Daferner · Nurnberg
53'🟨Janik Bachmann · SV Sandhausen
53'🟨Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg
59'🟨Lino Tempelmann · Nurnberg
70'🟨Marcel Ritzmaier · SV Sandhausen
90'⚽Kwadwo Duah · Nurnberg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots17
2On target8
4Corners7
21Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.57
cards avg (last 5)4.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
coach days353.00780.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.393.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.420.54
elo1464.741467.29
elo momentum (last 5)22.08-20.13
eye test v1-0.33-0.02
eye trend v1-0.270.08
first sub minute (last 10)64.1049.30
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.760.64
league points6.004.00
league rank12.0014.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)62.8074.00
possession avg (last 5)35.8048.40
rest days7.007.77
scorer concentration0.50—
season ppg1.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.601.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.6013.80
skill v1-2.16-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.20
squad age28.1726.69
state index0.10-0.44
sterile dominance v1-1.47-0.52
threat rate (last 10)0.280.29
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60