⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

SC Paderborn 07 7–2 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Aug 20, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Exner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win59%1.63
Draw21%4.70
Holstein Kiel win20%4.85

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel −151%1.93
SC Paderborn 07 −149%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over71%1.36
Under29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel
7'⚽ (pen)Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07
9'⚽Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel
13'⚽Julian Justvan · SC Paderborn 07
25'⚽Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07
29'⚽Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07
37'🟨Philipp Sander · Holstein Kiel
38'⚽Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07
40'🟨Patrick Erras · Holstein Kiel
45'⚽Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel
52'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

5Half-time score2
17Shots16
9On target6
2Corners9
4Fouls9
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Holstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.550.67
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHome Deluxe Arena
Marvin Pieringer · SC Paderborn 07
66'🟨Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel
80'⚽Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07
84'🟨Jonas Carls · SC Paderborn 07
2.00
coach days415.00323.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.043.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.11
dominance (last 5)0.620.43
elo1552.291508.58
elo momentum (last 5)9.413.60
eye test v11.37-0.15
eye trend v1-0.000.11
first sub minute (last 10)56.6059.00
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.661.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.790.68
league points9.008.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank4.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0081.40
possession avg (last 5)59.0057.60
rest days7.777.00
scorer concentration0.440.29
season ppg2.252.00
shot diff avg (last 5)6.60-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.8011.80
skill v11.260.94
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.304.20
sot for avg (last 3)7.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)7.003.60
squad age25.5127.12
state index0.600.05
sterile dominance v10.390.86
threat rate (last 10)0.290.21
threat rate (last 3)0.340.29
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60