⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Regensburg 0–6 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Aug 20, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg win42%2.35
Karlsruhe win32%3.09
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe −0.2552%1.88
Regensburg −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg
7'⚽Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe
8'🟨Dejan Stojanović · Regensburg
14'⚽Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe
42'🟨Steve Breitkreuz · Regensburg
43'⚽Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe
48'⚽Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
60'🟨Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
63'🟨Stephan Kofi Ambrosius · Karlsruhe
65'⚽Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
78'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
6Shots17
2On target8
4Corners7
12Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.590.71
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
Tim Breithaupt
· Karlsruhe
coach days1876.00931.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.004.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.607.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.712.86
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.20
dominance (last 5)0.520.53
elo1444.091439.74
elo momentum (last 5)31.34-23.25
eye test v10.250.54
eye trend v1-0.140.30
first sub minute (last 10)65.6049.80
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.740.64
league points7.004.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.0011.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2072.20
possession avg (last 5)45.2048.40
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.200.20
season ppg1.751.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.404.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.4016.80
skill v1-0.70-0.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.305.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.00
squad age27.1028.79
state index0.08-0.72
sterile dominance v1-0.88-1.16
threat rate (last 10)0.310.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.43
threat rate (last 5)0.300.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20