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Hannover 1–0 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Aug 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Petersen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win46%2.11
Regensburg win28%3.50
Draw26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.2553%1.83
Regensburg −0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.67
Under42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Sei Muroya · Hannover
37'🟨Benedikt Saller · Regensburg
51'🟨Steve Breitkreuz · Regensburg
83'⚽Antonio Foti · Hannover
85'🟨Håvard Nielsen · Hannover
88'🟨Fabian Kunze · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots15
6On target7
5Corners3
18Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.600.55
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz von Heiden-Arena
coach days44.001870.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.751.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.420.54
elo1434.491452.90
elo momentum (last 5)-14.1124.25
eye test v10.360.26
eye trend v1-0.03-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)57.4067.10
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.670.71
league points1.007.00
league rank16.007.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2073.60
possession avg (last 5)53.4049.40
rest days8.028.02
scorer concentration—0.20
season ppg0.332.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.602.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.2014.40
skill v10.29-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)6.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.605.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.80
squad age26.4827.38
state index-0.460.10
sterile dominance v10.17-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.310.30
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20