← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Aug 7, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 48% | 2.01 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 28% | 3.48 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Magdeburg −0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.47 |
| Under | 35% | 2.78 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel |
| 29' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jamie Lawrence · Magdeburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jason Ceka · Magdeburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jamie Lawrence · Magdeburg |
| 56' | 🟥 | Jamie Lawrence · Magdeburg |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 67' | 🟨 | Malcolm Cacutalua · Magdeburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Magdeburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | MDCC-Arena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| coach days | 552.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1425.06 | 1490.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.63 | 15.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.02 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 27.14 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |