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Karlsruhe 2–3 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Jul 24, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Brand

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg win39%2.50
Karlsruhe win35%2.86
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg +053%1.83
Karlsruhe +047%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Connor Krempicki · Magdeburg
7'⚽Andreas Müller · Magdeburg
32'⚽Barış Atik · Magdeburg
34'⚽Moritz-Broni Kwarteng · Magdeburg
37'🟨Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
45'🟨Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe
63'⚽Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
65'⚽Mikkel Kaufmann · Karlsruhe
70'🟨Mo El Hankouri · Magdeburg
84'🟨Tim Sechelmann · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
27Shots15
8On target4
9Corners4
13Fouls10
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.760.57
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
coach days904.00538.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.08
corner diff avg (last 5)4.202.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.403.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.572.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.15
dominance (last 5)0.490.50
elo1438.941412.63
elo momentum (last 5)-47.13-16.04
eye test v10.440.30
eye trend v10.16-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)48.0057.80
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.500.57
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.008.00
matches since win8.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0071.40
possession avg (last 5)56.2047.40
rest days7.007.71
season ppg0.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.8014.20
skill v10.45-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.00
squad age27.9025.41
state index-1.13-0.70
sterile dominance v10.12-0.80
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80