⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Hamburger SV 0–1 Hansa Rostock

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Jul 24, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Kampka

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win61%1.59
Draw23%4.33
Hansa Rostock win16%6.05

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hansa Rostock −151%1.93
Hamburger SV −149%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨John Verhoek · Hansa Rostock
33'🟨Frederic Ananou · Hansa Rostock
52'🟨Damian Roßbach · Hansa Rostock
80'🟨Ogechika Heil · Hamburger SV
81'🟨Svante Ingelsson · Hansa Rostock
86'🟨Kevin Schumacher · Hansa Rostock
90'⚽Kevin Schumacher · Hansa Rostock

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots12
2On target2
5Corners7
9Fouls12
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHamburger SVHansa Rostock
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.640.59
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVolksparkstadion
1.80
coach days388.001300.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.351.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.580.52
elo1622.941407.92
elo momentum (last 5)41.34-15.23
eye test v11.39-0.27
eye trend v1-0.140.07
first sub minute (last 10)58.2053.20
form points (last 5)15.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)3.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.05
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.780.70
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0069.00
possession avg (last 5)61.2044.80
rest days7.007.00
season ppg3.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.800.40
shots for avg (last 5)18.0012.00
skill v11.41-1.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.803.80
squad age25.7928.10
state index1.08-0.54
sterile dominance v10.27-0.86
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.340.28
threat rate (last 5)0.330.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60