← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Jul 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Lechner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 55% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 |
| Karlsruhe win | 21% | 4.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Karlsruhe −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.56 |
| Under | 39% | 2.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Philip Heise · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tim Breithaupt · Karlsruhe |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 65' | ⚽ | Robert Leipertz · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 68' | ⚽ | Julian Justvan · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 72' | ⚽ | Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sirlord Conteh · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| coach days | 381.00 | 897.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1529.02 | 1451.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.36 | -45.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.43 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |