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Greuther Furth 2–2 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Jul 16, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Braun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win44%2.15
Holstein Kiel win29%3.32
Draw27%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth −0.2552%1.86
Holstein Kiel −0.2548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.72
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel
31'🟨Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel
40'🟨Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
48'⚽Julian Green · Greuther Furth
63'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Greuther Furth
72'🟨Tobias Raschl · Greuther Furth
76'⚽Timothy Tillman · Greuther Furth
79'🟨Simon Asta · Greuther Furth
80'⚽ (pen)Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel
90'🟨Jeremy Dudziak · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
24Shots4
10On target2
12Corners1
14Fouls9
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.470.68
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
2.00
coach days15.00288.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.07
dominance (last 5)0.450.43
elo1517.651489.88
elo momentum (last 5)-5.1412.74
eye test v1-0.870.37
eye trend v10.580.24
first sub minute (last 10)54.6058.30
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.201.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.65
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win12.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2079.80
possession avg (last 5)46.4054.60
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.4011.00
skill v1-0.170.60
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.00
squad age26.6528.35
state index-0.910.03
sterile dominance v10.460.63
threat rate (last 10)0.170.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.22
threat rate (last 5)0.170.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.80