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Burgos 0–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, May 27, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Iván Caparrós

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burgos win60%1.57
Draw26%3.91
Lugo win15%7.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo −151%1.90
Burgos −149%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Burgos
45'⚽Sebas Moyano · Lugo
53'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Lugo
55'🟨Miguel Atienza · Burgos
65'🟨Jordi Calavera · Lugo
71'🟨Jesús Areso · Burgos
77'🟨Aleksandar Pantić · Lugo
90'🟨Grego Sierra · Burgos
90'🟨Juanpe · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots11
3On target4
6Corners5
9Fouls11
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBurgosLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.510.47
cards avg (last 5)1.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de El Plantío
coach days1090.00115.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.351.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.18
dominance (last 5)0.440.39
elo1474.441322.58
elo momentum (last 5)-10.75-20.60
eye test v1-0.83-1.01
eye trend v1-0.310.20
first sub minute (last 10)53.0057.90
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
keeper form v10.750.65
league points60.0028.00
league rank13.0024.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.007.00
matches since win3.0020.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4081.80
possession avg (last 5)45.0046.40
rest days6.806.91
scorer concentration0.250.30
season ppg1.330.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.608.20
skill v1-0.330.23
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.00
squad age27.0826.31
state index-0.32-1.95
sterile dominance v1-0.250.33
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00