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Albacete 1–1 Deportivo Alavés

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, May 14, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: José López

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win39%2.48
Draw33%2.92
Deportivo Alavés win28%3.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Deportivo Alavés −0.2553%1.83
Albacete −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.48
Over35%2.77

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Bernabé Barragán · Albacete
-5'🟨Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés
36'🟨Jason · Deportivo Alavés
39'⚽Maikel Mesa · Albacete
48'🟨Riki Rodríguez · Albacete
61'🟨Luis Rioja · Deportivo Alavés
71'🟨Cristian Glauder · Albacete
80'🟨Julio Alonso · Albacete
80'🟨Asier Villalibre · Deportivo Alavés
87'🟨Carlos Benavídez · Deportivo Alavés
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots13
4On target4
4Corners8
16Fouls9
4Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteDeportivo Alavés
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.730.66
cards avg (last 5)1.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
Abderrahman Rebbach
· Deportivo Alavés
90'⚽ (og)Higinio Marín · Deportivo Alavés
coach days347.00378.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.401.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.581.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.590.59
elo1537.891568.39
elo momentum (last 5)51.93-6.32
eye test v11.19-0.94
eye trend v1-0.05-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)55.7058.80
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.650.78
league points70.0071.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6077.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2046.60
rest days7.098.90
scorer concentration0.200.23
season ppg1.631.65
shot diff avg (last 5)4.802.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.8010.60
skill v1-0.06-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.903.30
sot for avg (last 3)7.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.802.40
squad age25.3527.28
state index0.820.01
sterile dominance v1-0.730.02
threat rate (last 10)0.340.24
threat rate (last 3)0.340.23
threat rate (last 5)0.340.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00