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Andorra (club) 1–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, May 14, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Andorra (club) win38%2.55
Draw32%3.00
Tenerife win30%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.2555%1.78
Andorra (club) −0.2545%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

70'🟨Marc Aguado · Andorra (club)
76'🟨Dauda Mohammed · Tenerife
89'🟨Kike Salas · Tenerife
90'🟨Nikola Šipčić · Tenerife
90'🟨José Ángel Jurado · Tenerife
90'🟨Juan Soriano · Tenerife
90'🟨Álex Corredera · Tenerife
90'⚽ (pen)Carlos Martinez Rodriguez · Andorra (club)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots7
4On target1
4Corners4
11Fouls20
1Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAndorra (club)Tenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.560.63
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Nacional
coach days863.00924.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.402.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.691.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.03
dominance (last 5)0.560.65
elo1523.371540.41
elo momentum (last 5)12.7727.29
eye test v10.620.94
eye trend v1-0.020.19
first sub minute (last 10)60.9058.50
form points (last 5)8.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.540.80
league points55.0056.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)90.8081.00
possession avg (last 5)72.4055.60
rest days6.917.91
scorer concentration0.240.23
season ppg1.311.30
shot diff avg (last 5)2.206.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.0015.00
skill v12.710.76
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.006.20
squad age24.8828.68
state index0.280.55
sterile dominance v12.450.21
threat rate (last 10)0.170.25
threat rate (last 3)0.160.28
threat rate (last 5)0.150.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60