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Málaga CF 2–0 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, May 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Iván Caparrós

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win54%1.78
Draw27%3.50
Mirandes win18%5.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes −0.7552%1.88
Málaga CF −0.7548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Alberto Escassi · Málaga CF
40'🟨Alejandro Barbudo Barbu · Mirandes
43'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
47'⚽Lago Júnior · Málaga CF
80'🟨Simón Moreno · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots7
3On target2
5Corners0
14Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.52
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.700.60
cards avg (last 5)3.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
coach days132.00466.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.21
corner diff avg (last 5)2.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.833.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.08
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1465.621522.98
elo momentum (last 5)19.9524.09
eye test v1-0.290.10
eye trend v10.15-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)49.5064.40
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.820.69
league points46.0059.00
league rank21.0012.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0076.00
possession avg (last 5)52.0045.60
rest days6.207.20
scorer concentration0.320.38
season ppg1.071.37
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.609.20
skill v10.18-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
squad age29.5223.74
state index0.060.26
sterile dominance v10.440.01
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00