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Leganes 2–1 Huesca

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, May 6, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes win47%2.07
Draw33%2.90
Huesca win20%4.90

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca −0.553%1.83
Leganes −0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.43
Over33%2.90

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Allan Nyom · Leganes
7'⚽Jon Karrikaburu · Leganes
10'🟨Rubén Pulido · Huesca
40'⚽Juan Carlos · Huesca
45'🟨Seydouba Cisse · Leganes
45'🟨Yacine Qasmi · Leganes
69'🟨Gerard Valentín · Huesca
74'🟨Cristian Salvador · Huesca
77'🟨Enzo Lombardo · Huesca
86'🟨Jérémy Blasco · Huesca
90'🟨Dani Raba · Leganes
90'🟨David Timor · Huesca
90'🟨Andrei Rațiu · Huesca
90'⚽ (pen)Yacine Qasmi · Leganes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
23Shots6
9On target2
9Corners3
8Fouls19
3Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeganesHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.710.65
cards avg (last 5)1.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Butarque
coach days35.00309.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.481.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.09
dominance (last 5)0.490.45
elo1478.101521.93
elo momentum (last 5)14.81-13.08
eye test v1-0.86-0.76
eye trend v10.03-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)54.8047.80
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.531.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.640.83
league points54.0054.00
league rank13.0012.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8068.60
possession avg (last 5)44.2038.80
rest days6.905.00
scorer concentration0.250.18
season ppg1.291.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.009.60
skill v1-0.61-1.41
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.20
squad age28.2228.90
state index-0.15-0.34
sterile dominance v1-0.33-0.85
threat rate (last 10)0.200.27
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80