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Huesca 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2022 · Mon, Apr 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw36%2.66
Tenerife win35%2.79
Huesca win29%3.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife +054%1.78
Huesca +046%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under72%1.35
Over28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨José León · Tenerife
30'🟨Sergio González · Tenerife
33'⚽Samuel Obeng · Huesca
49'🟨Florian Miguel · Huesca
58'⚽Waldo Rubio Marin · Tenerife
61'🟨Oscar Sielva · Huesca
68'🟨Juan Carlos · Huesca
79'🟨Gerard Valentín · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots14
2On target7
3Corners7
7Fouls17
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.560.64
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
coach days297.00904.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.202.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.550.62
elo1523.161520.15
elo momentum (last 5)-10.73-5.02
eye test v1-0.340.45
eye trend v10.040.78
first sub minute (last 10)43.7059.20
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.820.73
league points52.0049.00
league rank13.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0079.80
possession avg (last 5)39.2054.20
rest days8.298.10
scorer concentration0.190.21
season ppg1.301.23
shot diff avg (last 5)2.206.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.8013.40
skill v1-0.920.57
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.40
squad age29.1029.13
state index-0.020.13
sterile dominance v1-1.070.29
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.28
threat rate (last 5)0.300.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40