← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Apr 23, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 44% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Lugo win | 25% | 3.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF +0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Lugo +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.52 |
| Over | 37% | 2.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Rubén Castro · Málaga CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Francisco Villalba · Málaga CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Francisco Villalba · Málaga CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Andoni López · Lugo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Hacen · Lugo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alberto Rodríguez · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 81.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1355.94 | 1468.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.02 | 45.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| league points | 27.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.81 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.71 | 29.28 |
| state index | -1.32 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |