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Málaga CF 1–0 Cartagena

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Apr 16, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: David Gálvez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win42%2.34
Draw31%3.20
Cartagena win28%3.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena −0.2551%1.92
Málaga CF −0.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥Manolo Reina · Málaga CF
-5'🟨Pablo Vázquez · Cartagena
21'⚽Pablo Chavarria · Málaga CF
45'🟨Esteban Burgos · Málaga CF
48'🟨Franchu · Cartagena
69'🟨Pablo Chavarria · Málaga CF
84'🟨Rubén Yáñez · Málaga CF
87'🟨David Ferreiro · Cartagena
90'🟨Fran Sol · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots13
3On target2
3Corners4
16Fouls12
4Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFCartagena
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.660.66
cards avg (last 5)2.403.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
coach days105.00835.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.411.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.12
dominance (last 5)0.450.52
elo1458.511511.22
elo momentum (last 5)39.732.35
eye test v1-0.720.20
eye trend v1-0.16-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)52.6052.80
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.740.72
league points39.0054.00
league rank22.008.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4083.00
possession avg (last 5)40.4054.00
rest days8.907.00
scorer concentration0.320.17
season ppg1.001.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.601.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2012.40
skill v1-0.540.83
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
squad age28.8629.88
state index0.170.03
sterile dominance v1-0.240.40
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.16
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40