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Albacete 3–1 Eibar

← Segunda División 2022 · Fri, Apr 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win34%2.82
Draw33%2.90
Eibar win32%3.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete +052%1.86
Eibar +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.43
Over33%2.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Higinio Marín · Albacete
26'🟨Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Eibar
38'⚽Juanma García · Albacete
44'🟨Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar
55'🟨José Corpas · Eibar
56'⚽Juanma García · Albacete
60'⚽Quique · Eibar
74'🟨Matheus Pereira · Eibar
77'🟨Riki Rodríguez · Albacete
85'🟨Sergio Álvarez · Eibar
90'🟨Juan María Alcedo · Albacete
90'🟨Luca Zidane · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots11
8On target1
4Corners6
11Fouls14
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteEibar
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.14
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.740.58
cards avg (last 5)3.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
coach days317.00682.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.59
elo1485.961616.72
elo momentum (last 5)-28.976.82
eye test v10.06-0.33
eye trend v1-0.07-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)57.3055.80
form points (last 5)2.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v1—0.80
league points57.0069.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6080.00
possession avg (last 5)45.4052.40
rest days6.005.20
scorer concentration0.230.27
season ppg1.501.82
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.603.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.4012.20
skill v1-0.640.47
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
squad age26.1628.23
state index-0.590.42
sterile dominance v1-0.980.35
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.370.24
threat rate (last 5)0.320.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.00