← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Mar 19, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 36% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.80 |
| Lugo win | 29% | 3.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander +0 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Lugo +0 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 71% | 1.37 |
| Over | 29% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 13 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand