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Las Palmas 2–2 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, Mar 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win66%1.45
Draw23%4.23
Málaga CF win11%9.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −154%1.79
Málaga CF −146%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽ (pen)Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas
15'🟨Omenuke Mfulu · Las Palmas
19'⚽ (pen)Fran Sol · Málaga CF
62'🟨Sergi Cardona · Las Palmas
74'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
75'⚽Pejiño · Las Palmas
76'🟨Jozabed Sánchez · Málaga CF
87'⚽Alex Calvo · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots10
6On target6
4Corners2
14Fouls18
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.380.63
cards avg (last 5)2.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
coach days434.0069.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.13
corner diff avg (last 5)4.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.821.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.000.09
dominance (last 5)0.790.42
elo1630.421412.13
elo momentum (last 5)7.12-11.01
eye test v10.40-0.48
eye trend v1-0.240.24
first sub minute (last 10)50.4057.00
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.830.77
league points63.0028.00
league rank2.0022.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.0071.00
possession avg (last 5)72.4044.00
rest days8.006.10
scorer concentration0.190.30
season ppg1.970.85
shot diff avg (last 5)12.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.009.80
skill v12.38-0.87
sot against avg (last 5)1.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.20
squad age25.9129.89
state index1.07-0.63
sterile dominance v11.75-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.40