⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Oviedo 1–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Feb 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw36%2.64
Oviedo win34%2.96
Albacete win30%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo +052%1.85
Albacete +048%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under72%1.33
Over28%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Raúl Moro · Oviedo
29'🟨Manuel Fuster · Albacete
29'⚽Jimmy Suárez · Oviedo
35'🟨Mangel · Oviedo
38'🟨Manu Vallejo · Oviedo
48'🟨Lander Olaetxea · Albacete
58'🟨Riki Rodríguez · Albacete
65'⚽Álvaro Rodriguez · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots9
3On target3
5Corners3
10Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.730.62
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
coach days148.00270.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)3.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.032.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.56
elo1499.261498.10
elo momentum (last 5)-36.9422.85
eye test v1-1.03-0.18
eye trend v10.09-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)54.9066.30
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.730.78
league points37.0048.00
league rank18.006.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4076.20
possession avg (last 5)42.4054.00
rest days9.007.10
scorer concentration0.310.22
season ppg1.191.60
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.802.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.0010.80
skill v1-1.210.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.80
squad age25.9026.20
state index-0.460.30
sterile dominance v1-0.450.57
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60