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Cartagena 2–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2022 · Fri, Feb 17, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena win41%2.38
Draw35%2.80
Oviedo win24%4.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.2551%1.93
Cartagena −0.2549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under73%1.32
Over27%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Iván Martos · Cartagena
38'🟨Lucas Ahijado · Oviedo
38'⚽Damian Musto · Cartagena
66'🟨Damian Musto · Cartagena
74'🟨Luismi · Oviedo
80'⚽Leonardo Sequeira · Oviedo
89'🟨Pepê · Cartagena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots5
8On target2
3Corners3
22Fouls21
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCartagenaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.540.73
cards avg (last 5)2.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova
coach days777.00139.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.204.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.142.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.510.55
elo1501.551507.72
elo momentum (last 5)5.29-27.35
eye test v1-0.60-1.00
eye trend v10.690.24
first sub minute (last 10)49.5054.90
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.840.76
league points38.0037.00
league rank11.0013.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6068.40
possession avg (last 5)56.8042.20
rest days5.105.20
scorer concentration0.210.33
season ppg1.311.23
shot diff avg (last 5)0.001.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.6010.00
skill v10.72-1.22
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.402.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.60
squad age30.0126.62
state index-0.12-0.27
sterile dominance v10.81-0.67
threat rate (last 10)0.180.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.40