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Real Racing Club de Santander 2–1 Leganes

← Segunda División 2022 · Mon, Feb 13, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw34%2.88
Leganes win33%3.00
Real Racing Club de Santander win33%2.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes +050%1.93
Real Racing Club de Santander +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under69%1.39
Over31%3.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Marco Sangalli · Real Racing Club de Santander
27'⚽Roko Baturina · Real Racing Club de Santander
34'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Leganes
47'⚽Jordi Mboula · Real Racing Club de Santander
58'🟨Dani Raba · Leganes
68'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Leganes
72'🟥Yvan Neyou · Leganes
84'🟨Josema · Leganes
85'🟨José Manuel Arnáiz · Leganes
89'🟨Aritz Aldasoro · Real Racing Club de Santander
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots12
3On target5
7Corners3
13Fouls12
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Racing Club de SantanderLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.460.64
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCampos de Sport de El Sardinero
🟨
Yacine Qasmi · Leganes
3.60
coach days74.00257.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.202.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.04
dominance (last 5)0.430.40
elo1436.521551.81
elo momentum (last 5)8.708.36
eye test v10.34-0.91
eye trend v1-0.350.11
first sub minute (last 10)53.3065.80
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.680.77
league points33.0043.00
league rank19.008.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)43.0047.00
rest days8.109.20
scorer concentration0.290.25
season ppg1.141.48
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.208.40
skill v1-0.57-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.702.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.60
squad age26.5330.14
state index-0.230.03
sterile dominance v1-0.670.23
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80