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Granada 2–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2022 · Fri, Feb 10, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win46%2.14
Draw32%3.10
Tenerife win23%4.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada −0.2554%1.79
Tenerife −0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.43
Over33%2.92

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Ricard Sánchez · Granada
7'⚽ (pen)Myrto Uzuni · Granada
57'🟨Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
83'⚽ (pen)Myrto Uzuni · Granada
88'🟨Sergio González · Tenerife
90'🟨Bryan Zaragoza · Granada
90'🟨Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots9
3On target3
2Corners7
10Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.550.69
cards avg (last 5)1.204.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
coach days101.00831.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)1.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.834.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.03
dominance (last 5)0.440.54
elo1628.681534.15
elo momentum (last 5)27.3913.01
eye test v10.18-1.10
eye trend v10.010.02
first sub minute (last 10)47.5055.30
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.890.68
league points53.0036.00
league rank3.0012.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0072.40
possession avg (last 5)49.0044.60
rest days5.296.10
scorer concentration0.440.14
season ppg1.831.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.201.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.209.80
skill v1-0.11-0.72
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.602.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.20
squad age28.3928.60
state index0.800.31
sterile dominance v10.16-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40