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Cartagena 1–2 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Feb 5, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win46%2.12
Draw30%3.25
Cartagena win25%3.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD +0.2554%1.81
Cartagena +0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.64
Over42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Pablo De Blasis · Cartagena
36'🟨Damian Musto · Cartagena
44'🟨Borja Valle · Cartagena
47'⚽Marc Pubill · Levante UD
57'🟨Marc Pubill · Levante UD
67'🟨José Campaña · Levante UD
71'🟨Joni Montiel · Levante UD
72'🟨Álex Muñoz · Levante UD
82'⚽Robert Ibáñez · Levante UD
90'🟨Robert Ibáñez · Levante UD
90'⚽Alfredo Ortuño

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots10
2On target3
4Corners1
15Fouls19
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCartagenaLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.490.60
cards avg (last 5)3.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova
· Cartagena
coach days765.00127.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.803.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.490.65
elo1482.431651.86
elo momentum (last 5)-46.669.70
eye test v1-0.95-0.01
eye trend v10.160.13
first sub minute (last 10)50.7057.80
form points (last 5)2.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.800.80
league points35.0051.00
league rank13.003.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2082.20
possession avg (last 5)61.4055.20
rest days6.907.09
scorer concentration0.200.24
season ppg1.301.82
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.606.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6014.20
skill v11.070.84
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.603.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.80
squad age29.4428.08
state index-1.040.69
sterile dominance v11.450.34
threat rate (last 10)0.170.24
threat rate (last 3)0.150.29
threat rate (last 5)0.160.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.40