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Las Palmas 1–0 Huesca

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, Jan 28, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Iván Caparrós

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win60%1.61
Draw26%3.72
Huesca win14%7.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca −155%1.76
Las Palmas −145%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Joaquín Muñoz · Huesca
35'🟨Andrei Rațiu · Huesca
48'⚽Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
50'🟨David Timor · Huesca
59'🟨Jérémy Blasco · Huesca
80'🟨Gerard Valentín · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots7
4On target2
7Corners1
10Fouls17
0Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.500.68
cards avg (last 5)2.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
coach days392.00211.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)2.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.407.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.003.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.15
dominance (last 5)0.640.45
elo1617.701513.27
elo momentum (last 5)21.84-16.42
eye test v11.01-1.14
eye trend v1-0.070.24
first sub minute (last 10)51.4054.20
form points (last 5)13.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.740.82
league points51.0035.00
league rank1.0010.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0073.20
possession avg (last 5)63.4044.60
rest days8.006.10
scorer concentration0.230.13
season ppg1.961.35
shot diff avg (last 5)7.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)18.009.40
skill v11.54-0.65
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.002.20
squad age26.0628.61
state index0.66-0.64
sterile dominance v10.62-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40