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Huesca 1–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Jan 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win39%2.51
Draw35%2.80
Oviedo win26%3.74

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.2553%1.83
Huesca −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under72%1.34
Over28%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'🟨Joaquín Muñoz · Huesca
38'🟨Jorge Pulido · Huesca
39'⚽ (pen)Koba Koindredi · Oviedo
41'🟨Rodrigo Tarin · Oviedo
42'⚽Jorge Pulido · Huesca
45'🟨Jimmy Suárez · Oviedo
57'🟥Luismi · Oviedo
75'🟨Marco Sangalli · Oviedo
77'🟨Gerard Valentín · Huesca
90'🟨Oscar Sielva · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots8
5On target2
3Corners5
12Fouls10
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.650.76
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
coach days205.00113.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.741.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.48
elo1514.391535.06
elo momentum (last 5)-7.393.24
eye test v1-1.35-1.12
eye trend v10.15-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)51.4057.90
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.530.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.840.76
league points34.0033.00
league rank10.0012.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6066.60
possession avg (last 5)37.6037.80
rest days8.198.90
scorer concentration0.140.36
season ppg1.361.32
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.208.60
skill v1-1.33-1.67
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.102.60
sot for avg (last 3)1.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.802.40
squad age28.2327.16
state index-0.270.02
sterile dominance v1-0.72-0.97
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80