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Málaga CF 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, Jan 7, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win36%2.80
Draw33%2.90
Málaga CF win31%3.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF +0.2555%1.75
Tenerife +0.2545%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under69%1.40
Over31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Genaro · Málaga CF
14'🟨Alberto Escassi · Málaga CF
26'🟨José Ángel Jurado · Tenerife
33'🟨Enric Gallego · Tenerife
38'🟨Juan Soriano · Tenerife
63'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
75'⚽Samuel Shashoua · Tenerife
82'🟨Iván Romero · Tenerife
86'⚽Rubén Castro · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots4
4On target1
3Corners2
8Fouls13
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.580.70
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
coach days6.00797.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.19
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.044.44
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.21
dominance (last 5)0.460.55
elo1416.821521.14
elo momentum (last 5)25.31-1.94
eye test v1-0.04-0.33
eye trend v10.080.38
first sub minute (last 10)51.5055.30
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.420.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v1—0.63
league points21.0027.00
league rank22.0019.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2076.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0044.80
rest days19.9021.90
scorer concentration0.270.17
season ppg0.911.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.203.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.8011.00
skill v1-0.38-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
squad age29.7729.48
state index0.10-0.10
sterile dominance v1-0.05-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00